Possible scenario
Proxy Maritime Pressure
24% Chance
Iran avoids a direct naval confrontation with Israel but allows proxy pressure to rise in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The pattern resembles earlier Houthi harassment of commercial shipping, with limited but visible effects on energy and transport risk pricing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Industrials +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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