Possible scenario
Iran Counter-Signals
18% Chance
Iran responds to Israel’s submarine milestone by showcasing undersea, missile, and drone capabilities rather than striking directly. The goal is to preserve deterrence credibility after Israeli operations against Iranian military research sites earlier in 2026.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.