Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
46% Chance
Israel’s sixth submarine mainly strengthens deterrence by signaling a survivable long-range strike capability against Iran. Tehran condemns the deployment but avoids a direct military response, preferring ambiguity and proxy pressure.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- ESLT+1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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