Possible scenario
Weaker Rural Landfall
25% Chance
Polo loses intensity before landfall or strikes a less densely populated stretch of the Pacific coast. Humanitarian costs may still be serious, but damage to nationally important infrastructure and listed companies is more contained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.