Possible scenario
Offshore Recurve
25% Chance
Steering currents pull Polo away from the coast before landfall. This is the lowest-damage outcome, producing dangerous surf, port precautions, and some flight cancellations but little lasting infrastructure loss.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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