Possible scenario
Guerrero Direct Hit
35% Chance
Polo makes landfall on or near Guerrero, putting Acapulco and nearby coastal municipalities at risk of a repeat of the 2023 Otis disaster. The strongest near-term market impact is concentrated in Mexican tourism, airports, insurers, airlines, and reconstruction-linked materials.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.0%
- Finance -0.6%
- Industrials -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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