Possible scenario
Contained Missile Exchanges
45% Chance
The most likely path is continued Houthi missile or drone fire met by Saudi air defenses, with limited physical damage. Both sides signal resolve, but neither immediately crosses into a sustained campaign that would force a broader regional response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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