Possible scenario
Backchannel De-Escalation
25% Chance
Saudi Arabia, the Houthis, Oman, and UN intermediaries revive backchannel contacts to prevent the current cycle from hitting oil infrastructure or civilian airports. The Houthis keep threatening operations publicly, but both sides slow the pace of attacks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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