Possible scenario
Talks Slip Further
25% Chance
EU governments remain close to a deal but need more time to settle funding, state-aid and LNG-supply safeguards. Markets treat the delay as inconvenient rather than a collapse because joint purchasing has already begun and the Commission keeps negotiations active.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Utilities -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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