Possible scenario
Stronger Emergency Package
18% Chance
EU leaders use Italy's proposal as the basis for a more forceful emergency intervention, combining a power-price benchmark, enhanced joint gas buying and demand-reduction incentives. This lowers near-term price anxiety but increases uncertainty for gas suppliers and merchant generators.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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