Possible scenario
Expanded U.S. Campaign
25% Chance
The rising official toll shifts the administration toward a larger campaign against Iranian missile, drone, and naval assets. This path is less likely than containment because it risks major retaliation, but the sequence of attacks has narrowed U.S. room for inaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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