Possible scenario
Working Talks Resume
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is a controlled reopening of diplomacy rather than a breakthrough. Lee Jae-myung's push gives Trump political cover to test a limited channel with Kim Jong Un, while Pyongyang keeps denuclearization off the table.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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