Possible scenario
Stalemate Persists
20% Chance
Kim Jong Un maintains that denuclearization is not negotiable and treats the Lee-Trump initiative as pressure politics. The stalemate remains manageable if North Korea avoids major tests, but it leaves sanctions and deterrence policy unchanged.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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