Possible scenario
Limited Summit Deal
25% Chance
Trump converts Lee's diplomatic urging into a leader-level meeting with Kim Jong Un. The likely result is a limited political deal that reduces near-term testing risk without resolving the nuclear issue.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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