Possible scenario
Succession Becomes Political
18% Chance
Alito's retirement decision becomes entangled with Senate control, election timing, and confirmation strategy. Even if he leans toward leaving, he may delay or condition the timing to avoid an unpredictable replacement process.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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