Possible scenario
Planned Conservative Succession
28% Chance
Alito chooses a controlled retirement if Republicans retain a favorable confirmation path. The goal would be to replace him with a younger conservative jurist while preserving the Court's ideological balance.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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