Possible scenario
Alito Remains Seated
42% Chance
Alito ultimately decides that retirement is premature and keeps his seat, consistent with his 2024 statement that he planned to remain. His recent hospitalization and recusals lead to more scrutiny, but not to an immediate vacancy.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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