Possible scenario
Legal Challenge Emerges
25% Chance
A coalition of Republican-led states or conservative legal groups challenges the extension, arguing that DHS exceeded its discretion. Given the Supreme Court’s 2025 ruling allowing terminations but not requiring them, courts are likely to grant the executive branch substantial latitude.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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