Possible scenario
Extension Holds
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Trump administration allows the extension to take effect with limited operational changes. DHS and USCIS continue work authorization renewals, while the White House frames the decision as a narrow response to the Ukraine war and Sudan’s civil conflict rather than a broader immigration reversal.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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