Possible scenario
Broader TPS Recalibration
20% Chance
The White House uses the Ukrainian and Sudanese extension as part of a broader recalibration of TPS policy after earlier disputes over Salvadorans’ legal status. The administration preserves flexibility by distinguishing active-war countries from older TPS populations.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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