Possible scenario
ICC Operations Strained
20% Chance
The institutional sanctions produce practical disruption at the ICC even if allies continue diplomatic objections. Banks, travel providers and software vendors pause services while counsel assesses exposure to US penalties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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