Possible scenario
EU Shield Escalates
25% Chance
The Netherlands converts its earlier push for an EU shield into a formal Brussels initiative. The European Commission and key member states explore blocking-statute protections, euro payment channels and legal indemnities for entities dealing with the ICC.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Business Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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