Possible scenario
Threats Stay Rhetorical
40% Chance
Iran keeps the palace-targeting language as deterrent signaling rather than initiating a direct strike. Gulf governments elevate protection around royal sites and energy infrastructure, while Washington issues warnings and moves visible air-defense assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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