Possible scenario
Limited Regional Attack
30% Chance
Iran or aligned militias test GCC defenses with limited drones or missiles while avoiding mass casualties. The most likely kinetic path is an attack calibrated to show capability without forcing a full U.S.-GCC response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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