Possible scenario
Shipping Disruption Deepens
30% Chance
Attacks continue at a high tempo, but Iran and the United States avoid direct strikes on each other. Tanker traffic thins, insurance costs rise, and Gulf producers lean more heavily on pipelines and storage to keep some exports moving.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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