Possible scenario
Convoys Contain Attacks
35% Chance
The United States, United Kingdom, France and Gulf partners expand escorted transits through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the attack rate without directly striking Iranian territory. Tehran and the IRGC continue harassment and warnings, but both sides avoid a broader military exchange.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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