Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
20% Chance
Regional mediators push both Washington and Tehran to contain retaliation after the Riyadh and Yanbu attacks. The U.S. keeps forces on alert, but both sides use public warnings to signal deterrence rather than an immediate intention to widen the conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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