Possible scenario
Contained Proxy Escalation
40% Chance
Iran and aligned militias keep pressure on U.S. and Saudi-linked targets but avoid a clearly attributable mass-casualty strike on U.S. bases. Washington responds with air defenses, limited intercepts, sanctions, and warnings rather than a new large strike package.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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