Possible scenario
Tariff Escalation
30% Chance
Trump responds to weak polling by intensifying the policy themes that motivate his core supporters, especially tariffs and economic nationalism. This would reinforce stagflation concerns because investors already associate the tariff regime with higher prices and weaker demand.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.