Possible scenario
Policy Retreat
35% Chance
Trump’s record-low approval and overwhelming voter blame for inflation make a partial retreat on tariffs the most market-relevant path. Republicans facing the 2026 midterms press the White House to reduce the most inflationary measures without openly conceding policy failure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.