Possible scenario
Midterm Rout Narrative
20% Chance
The poll accelerates a consensus that Republicans face a difficult 2026 midterm environment. Markets focus on the likelihood of divided government, investigations, and reduced odds of new legislation after the election.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.4%
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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