Possible scenario
Ethics Inquiry Opens
30% Chance
Congressional Democrats and ethics watchdogs focus on the timing of Trump’s trades relative to Amazon tariff disputes, Microsoft data-center policy, and the administration’s tax changes. The most likely escalation is document requests and public hearings rather than immediate legal action.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- AMZN-1.3%
- MSFT-1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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