Possible scenario
Delay Is Granted
38% Chance
The White House or presiding official accepts Lisa Cook's request for more time, likely citing due process and the pending federal litigation over her attempted removal. This is the most likely path because a modest delay reduces procedural risk without requiring President Trump to abandon the mortgage-fraud allegations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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