Possible scenario
Coercion Persists
20% Chance
China continues using coast guard and maritime militia vessels to slow Philippine operations around Second Thomas Shoal. Manila’s domestic pressure rises, but Beijing calculates that controlled harassment will not trigger the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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