Possible scenario
Allied Deterrence Increases
25% Chance
The Marcos administration uses the delay to justify more visible coordination with the United States, Japan, and Australia. Beijing condemns the move, but both sides initially avoid direct confrontation between naval units.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Tickers
- +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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