Possible scenario
Contained Force Majeure
45% Chance
QatarEnergy maintains the current cancellation schedule through November while prioritizing higher-value and contractually sensitive cargoes to Japan, South Korea, China, and Europe. Pakistan and Bangladesh absorb the shortfall through spot LNG tenders, fuel oil burn, and demand curbs rather than triggering a broader LNG market rupture.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Utilities -0.5%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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