Possible scenario
Late GOP Rebound
25% Chance
A stronger Republican national environment late in the campaign improves the party's performance in redrawn seats. GOP candidates benefit from presidential turnout operations, weaker Democratic challengers, and favorable district lines in Texas and Florida.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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