Possible scenario
Caretaker Period Extends
20% Chance
The speaker may keep testing combinations before forcing a new election, especially if parties fear voter punishment for deadlock. Sweden continues under caretaker arrangements while budget negotiations and gang-crime legislation slow.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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