Possible scenario
Pressure Without Strike
28% Chance
After the election, Israel intensifies pressure on Washington and European governments but avoids an overt strike. The likely tools are sanctions, intelligence disclosures, cyber activity and diplomatic demands for tougher IAEA access.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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