Possible scenario
Diplomacy Regains Momentum
18% Chance
Iran chooses to preserve the inspection channel and avoid handing Netanyahu a clearer casus belli. The IAEA gains enough access to keep U.S. and European officials focused on diplomacy rather than sanctions or military options.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
- Industrials -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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