Possible scenario
Regional War Expansion
20% Chance
A direct strike on a tanker could produce retaliatory dynamics that exceed maritime signaling. The risk is highest if U.S. forces suffer casualties, Iran targets Gulf infrastructure, or Israel enters the campaign against IRGC assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -5.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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