Possible scenario
Limited Naval Escalation
40% Chance
The most likely path is a controlled military escalation in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Washington tries to re-open traffic with escorts and limited strikes while Tehran preserves pressure through harassment, drones, mines, and proxy threats without immediately widening the war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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