Possible scenario
Brokered Maritime Deal
25% Chance
Regional mediators and major oil importers push both sides toward a limited maritime arrangement rather than a broader nuclear settlement. The deal would focus narrowly on tanker passage, inspections, and deconfliction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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