Possible scenario
Attribution Drives Sanctions
25% Chance
The response protocol becomes a vehicle for faster public attribution and sanctions against Russian intelligence-linked networks. This path is plausible because Germany has already blamed Russia for explosive drones, and several prior incidents give Brussels a basis for a tougher hybrid-threat package.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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