Possible scenario
Violence Disrupts Commerce
22% Chance
A less likely but important scenario is that the designation list triggers cartel retaliation against rivals, police, or informants. The market impact remains modest unless violence affects transport routes, airports, or border inspection flows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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