Possible scenario
Sinaloa Power Rebalances
27% Chance
The sanctions reinforce the post-El Mayo succession struggle inside the Sinaloa Cartel. Factions tied to Los Chapitos and remaining Zambada loyalists reposition around fentanyl routes, local protection rackets, and political contacts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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