Possible scenario
Managed strike friction
30% Chance
Washington keeps intelligence sharing intact but pushes Ukraine to provide clearer warnings before strikes on refineries, ports, or ships linked to oil trade. The relationship remains functional, though less permissive than Kyiv would prefer.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.