Possible scenario
Intel spat resurfaces
18% Chance
A new missed-warning episode or leak contradicts Rubio's assurance and revives claims that the US is selectively slowing intelligence support. This would not amount to a full break, but it would raise doubts about operational reliability and political trust.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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