Possible scenario
Mixed Electoral Results
30% Chance
The $3.8 million spread across 66 races proves useful in some primaries but too diffuse to reshape the broader midterm map. Trump-aligned candidates improve in favorable districts, while swing-seat Republicans continue to rely on local brands and outside groups such as the Senate Leadership Fund.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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