Possible scenario
Regional Escalation
25% Chance
Diplomacy breaks down because Tehran or an IRGC-aligned unit concludes that military pressure will extract better terms. The risk is highest around U.S. naval forces, Gulf energy infrastructure, and shipping near the Strait of Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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